No, this post is not about gangsters in Asia. Reading the comments of Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (李顯龍) in two recent articles (1) (2), and considering the implications of his remarks, it seems a plausible thesis that Mr Lee is saying exactly what both the KMT and CCP/PRC desire to be said as they work together making sure that the Taiwan Presidency and Executive Yuan are not controlled by Taiwan's main opposition party, the Democratic Progressive Party, after 2012 and if possible ever again.
In the first article Mr. Lee concerns himself with attempting to prove that the ECFA will lead for Taiwan to FTAs with other countries. Remember that this is a key President Ma promise on ECFA, one that has so far shown little sign of being realised. Why? The simple answer will be that despite the win-win diplomatic detente that the Government claim is facilitating better ROC-PRC relations, China still acts internationally in much the same way it has for at least the last twenty years - blocking and pressuring countries from deepening official relations with Taiwan. Other countries don't really understand what ECFA is (a heavily political economic agreement) or are waiting to see more substantive changes in Chinese policy before risking the wrath of the CCP by engaging with Taiwan. Despite this, in the heavily symbolic world of much Asian politics, Mr. Lee acts as a cheerleader for unproven phenomenon, and in return Ma and the KMT election machine. First he gives credibility to the image of a 'cross-strait detente':
Although the ECFA is an economic accord, it will also help bring cross-strait relations closer together over the long term and reduce the possibility of any misunderstandings or friction between the two sides, Lee stated in the interview published Sept. 7.At the same time, the cross-strait detente will have a positive impact on the region as a whole, he added.
Next, he pushes the imperative of having the ECFA, echoing Ma's prediction of gloom that Taiwan would be isolated without ECFA, he raises the spectre of the face lost by Taiwan in being unable to 'beat' Korea or Hong Kong and finishes with a threat to Taiwanese that they have no choice (code for repealing the ECFA or voting DPP) but to go forward:
“If Taiwan did not have this agreement, it would have to walk alone along its own path, which would not be in its own best interests,” he said, pointing out that Taiwan would lose out in relative terms to South Korea and Hong Kong. “The general trends indicate that Taiwan has no choice but to proceed in this manner,” he said.
The Singapore Seer then gazes into his crystal ball and sees more flight of Taiwanese electronics and chip making firms to China at the cost of its competitiveness. Interestingly he then invokes agriculture (read: Southern DPP supporting Taiwanese) associating it with self-sufficiency (self-governance?) and suggests that the way around these prickly, annoyingly political and sensitive people and the fears they have for their jobs is to make adjustments to the economy that help adapt farmers to 'the new environment'. Curiously, he adds the caveat 'time permitting' to this prognosis and prescription - was he warning about the KMTs poor election ratings or did he think the pace of integration between CCP and KMT then PRC and ROC will be so fast (2012?) that the agricultural sector may not have time to adjust (will revolt?)?:
However, many economic activities that Taiwan has engaged in could gradually shift to the mainland in the future, Lee said. For example, Taiwan has remained a major electronics and chip manufacturer for the past decade, but “it is difficult to determine whether Taiwan will be able to maintain its competitive edge in these areas in a decade or two from now.”
Lee noted that agriculture is the most sensitive issue for Taiwan when it comes to signing free trade agreements with other countries. This involves self-sufficiency and the livelihood of Taiwan’s farmers, Lee stressed. However, in many areas, adjustments should be made to the economy, time permitting, in order to adapt to the new environment, he added.
Finally, Prime Minister Seer sees in ECFA the signification of Taiwan's desire to improve its relationship with 'the mainland'. It is now NOT simply an economic accord but something deeper. The relationship between two countries is a matter of politics. has Mr. Lee contradicted President Ma's claim that ECFA is not political?
As for the significance of the ECFA, Lee said it runs much deeper than simply being an economic accord, pointing out that the signing of the pact “illustrates Taiwan’s desire to improve its relationship with the mainland.”
In the second article gets round to reifying Ma's claim that ECFA will lead to FTAs and plays his trump card: here's the first example! Taiwan and Singapore. Only, Singapore NEEDS to be the FIRST 'city-state' to sign an FTA with Taiwan BEFORE others will follow. Remember here that Singapore is a one-party state hegemony heavily influenced in recent years by members of one family. There is a sizeable community of Chinese and Taiwanese living there and the Government has traditionally maintained good relations with China and (unofficially) Taiwan for a long time. Democracy and public protest are essentially negated:
Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (李顯龍) said more Asian nations will be inclined to forge trade pacts with Taiwan if it secures such a deal with his city-state first, local media said yesterday. Lee, in an interview with the Chinese-language China Times, said the two sides hope to sort out details for the planned deal within “the next few months.” Taiwan and Singapore announced in July that they would hold talks later this year on a trade agreement, the first such negotiations since Taipei sealed a major trade deal with China.
He follows with some classic self-aggrandisement:
“Our selling point is that if [Taiwan] has cooperation with Singapore, other countries will ponder hard: ‘If Singapore is doing this, are we going to lag behind if we are not following?’” he said.
Will they? Or will they wonder how they will get as good a deal when they are less familiar with playing with Chinese politics and are not an authoritarian one-party regime, necessitating transparency, public discussion and voting, something that is an anathema to China, Singapore and, increasingly, Taiwan. Lastly, Mr. Lee touched on the politics involved in the deal. He belittled Taiwan by calling the FTA 'sensitive' - essentially suggesting that Taiwan's foreign trade policy is not sovereign by evidence of the regular tantrums from across the water when Taiwan tries to enter negotiations. Locking Taiwan into agreement from Beijing, Mr. Lee rounds off his thoroughly toady regurgitation of KMT talking points by arguing that Taiwan must get the nod from Beijing 'before it steps onto the international sage' - either implying that Taiwan is not yet on the international stage or everytime it peeks its head over the parapet, it must do so within the constricting confines of making sure that cross-strait ties are not harmed - so much for economic independence.
However, the pact issue was still “sensitive” for Taiwan despite its warming ties with China, he said.Taiwan “has to ensure that cross-strait ties are not affected when it walks out [onto the international stage]. I believe Taiwan will carefully consider this factor,” Lee said, adding that Beijing is keeping an eye on the matter.
That last sentence is a pearl. Lee even goes so far as to give the heads up that this deal has Beijing's oversight stamped all over it. Cooked up won't sufficiently describe the final deal methinks - the content and especially the timing.
Conclusion? Has a quiet and pervasive Triad formed to facilitate the chances of the KMT staying in power and further advancing their now obviously unificationist annexationist programme?
Watch the seas ...
