Monday, May 31, 2010

Dem Primary Predictions

The same parameters are being used as my previous post for the GOP, so if you aren't mentioned, you don't matter:
Governor:
This has not been an "interesting" race per se, but Ron Sparks has went from being the Ag Commish that everyone loved to the cut-throat AEA/Milton McGreagor hatchet man.  Now, his proposals do have some validity, but he has run one of the more disgusting primary campaigns in recent memory.  I would say that all of this has just made the race close, as I have always had Davis winning and still do.  Why, you ask?  Demographics, my friend.  Sparks knows he has a demographic problem, admit it or not, and for that reason has played heavily to the black interest groups in the Democratic Party (i.e. ADC, New South).  Personally, I don't think that will matter as I believe most black Alabamians will support the first legitimate black candidate for Governor of Alabama when they are in the privacy of the booth, and despite the considerable exposure of the GOP races, I think he gains some crossover support.
Projected Winner:  Artur Davis


Attorney General:
This race hasn't gotten much coverage and the candidates went to the air at the last minute so, it is really anyone's guess.  I will say that all three look to be qualified, and I personally like Michel Nicrosi, but this is politics and she lacks in the personality department as well as the fact that she hasn't raised as much money as her Democratic counterpart James Anderson and Giles Perkins.  Electability in the form of fundraising prowess alone is why I think James Anderson secures the nomination.  There is a distinct possibility of a run-off in this race, but the Democrats know they are facing a money machine in Luther Strange in the fall and I believe they will choose Anderson to try and compete money wise.
Projected Winner:  James Anderson


State Treasurer:
Jeremy Sherer has run a good campaign, but I feel like Charlie Grimsley has the inside support one needs to win such a low profile race.
Projected Winner:  Charlie Grimsley


U.S. Senate:
Who knows which one of these sacrificial lambs will get beat by Shelby in November?
Projected Winner:  Bill Barnes


5th Congressional District:
The money in this race is on Steve Raby because of fundraising prowess and some insider ball experience, but I think Taze Shepard has a really good chance to knock off the supposed front-runner.  Regardless, I feel like we are headed to a run-off.
Projected Winner:  Run-Off


7th Congressional District:
Despite all the hooplah, this race for the majority-minority seat in Alabama really comes down to Terri Sewall and Earl Hillard Jr.  Shelia Smoot will probably be an also ran in this race, but will not make the eventual run-off.
Projected Winner:  Run-Off