As readers of this blog or my previous one may know, I have never done a full primary prediction for Alabama, but I am here to attempt a brief one. Its brevity is largely due to me being tired and having a long day tomorrow (as it is the day before election day). If I predict a run-off I will withhold judgment until I see if I am correct and then will make a prediction as to the winner later. Also, if I don't mention someone's name, they don't matter. Sorry Bill Johnson, but no one cares. Well, here we go:
Governor:
I, as most people probably have, can't make up my mind how I feel about this race. When I make any predictions I largely just go with my gut, which has been really good to me in the past, but I just don't know. I think that it is evident to everyone that Bradley Byrne will make the eventual run-off, so that takes care of him. Its picking his opponent that is so damned hard. First let me say that I think Tim James will not make the run-off. I know he has (and is spending) gobs of money to try, and that might prove me wrong, but I just feel like he peaked to early and is now heading south. As far as this state is concerned, I hope that is the case and his race for Governor just ends up being the largest single act of masturbation in Alabama history. That pretty much leaves Dr. Robert Bentley and Judge Roy Moore. The obvious selection here would be Moore, as he has maintained a base of support throughout the campaign and that would lead one to believe a more solid voter group, but I think that Dr. Bentley will be Bradley Byrne's opponent largely due to the best ads this election cycle and the degeneration of the James and Byrne campaigns into petty squabbles. Again, I know that this will probably be the most dubious of my predictions, but who the hell really knows as close and up and down as this race has been.Projected Winner: Run-Off
Lt. Governor:
To the chagrin of the Democrats and the praise of the GOP, Kay Ivey entered this race and actually gave the GOP a chance at being competitive in November. While she hasn't spent as much money as I would have anticipated since deciding to seek the jr. office rather than Governor, I think Kay Ivey's name recognition and the fact that Hank Erwin might be a lunatic secures the nomination for her in this race. Cam Ward thanks you Senator.Projected Winner: Kay Ivey
Attorney General:
Wow, such an underwhelming choice GOP voters have: sleazeball Luther Strange or "how the hell did he finish high school" Troy King. Good luck making that choice. In any case, I think this race is fairly easy to predict. I believe that Luther Strange will layeth the smacketh downeth Tuesday on Troy King for a number of reasons. The first and foremost reason Strange will win is that Troy King chose the wrong side of the gambling issue. For those who think he sold out to Victoryland I disagree. As stupid as King seems to be, he has to know that it wouldn't bode well for him in a GOP primary if he didn't back Riley with the anti-gambling task force so he probably believes his legal opinion is correct. The fact remains that Alabama is the home of the spin-off Christian Coalition because the national Christian Coalition is to "liberal" and they will trounce King in a GOP primary. I expect a double-digit defeat of Troy King here by the perennial GOP insider Strange. Projected Winner: Luther Strange
State Treasurer:
This has been an interesting race to follow for me and one of my least comfortable predictions, but I think George Wallace Jr.'s name recognition trumps the fact that Young Boozer is qualified for this office and was in no way involved with the PACT debacle. I wouldn't be surprised if this was close, but being such a low-profile office, especially in a primary, its hard to trump the Wallace family name. Don't forget the race he ran against "Big" Luther in 2006, Wallace wins.Projected Winner: George Wallace Jr.
Alabama Supreme Court, Place 2:
I have followed this race the least among state offices, but I feel like the appearance of hanky-panky with Tracy Cary's financial filings (which it appears there was none) has probably done him in. Cary has done better with ads, so I am a little skeptical, but I believe they will probably get lost in the fray and most of his recognition will be negative. The incumbent Bolin dominates his opponent.Projected Winner: Mike Bolin
Alabama Supreme Court, Place 3:
I must also admit willful primary ignorance when it comes to this Supreme Court race as well. I don't really have an analysis except that Tom Parker is in trouble and this could be really close. In any case, since I don't have anything to really say, so I think Parker beats Houts, just because he is the incumbent.Projected Winner: Tom Parker
Public Service Commission, Place 1:
I normally wouldn't have a clue who would be favored in this, but Twinkle Cavanaugh has the luxury of being close to the Alabama GOP, still hasn't taken her signs down from her race against Lucy Baxley in 2006, and still has the name recon from that race, so Twinkle wins without a run-off.Projected Winner: Twinkle Cavanaugh
Public Service Commission, Place 2:
I don't know who the voters will favor in this race between Chip Brown & Terry Dunn, so I will predict Brown wins because his name is first on the ballot.Projected Winner: Chip Brown
Agriculture Commissioner:
Well, I guess everyone knows who Dale Peterson is now, don't they? This has shaped up to be one of the more intriguing Ag primaries I have ever seen. One would tend to lean toward Dorman Grace in this area because of his backing by ALFA, or maybe John McMillan because he is probably the most qualified, but I think the gun-wielding cowboy takes this race, if for no other reason than his ad exposure. Aside from that, I think Dale Peterson has attended every single GOP meeting in the state (all at the same time, mind you) and also has single-handily given the Alabama economy a boost by printing more signs than the state has ink. Dale might be a long shot, and sometimes they payoff, but not without a run-off. Sorry Dale, you got close.Projected Winner: Run-Off
U.S. Senate:
Dick Shelby straight dominates his opponent with prejudice.Projected Winner: Dick Shelby
1st Congressional District:
Jo Bonner follows in kind with Dick Shelby.Projected Winner: Jo Bonner
2nd Congressional District:
After lulling behind some of the other races in the state Rick Barber finally made this interesting with his new ad while not giving a single reason he deserves anyone's support. I feel like Stephanie Bell could make this race interesting, but I think Roby is the lead vote getter. In any case, this will be replayed at the end of the month.Projected Winner: Run-Off
5th Congressional District:
I have fought to get as much information on this race as I could (not being that close to it) and still haven't seen a poll. I would say that from the beginning I have thought (and still do) that turncoat Parker Griffith would get nominated by his new party and head to November, but that has come into question more and more recently. At the outset, I wouldn't even have had him in a run-off, but now I do. Here's your shot Mo. I will qualify this selection, though, by saying that if there isn't a run-off Griffith wins.Projected Winner: Run-Off
6th Congressional District:
Spencer Bachus will thrash his two GOP opponents in this primary contest.Projected Winner: Spencer Bachus
7th Congressional District:
I know I stated previously that if I didn't mention someones name they didn't matter, but I am forced to mention one here. The Democrats will maintain this seat and I have no idea who will win. In fact, I had to look up who was running in the GOP primary. With complete honesty, this is a cop-out, but there are 4 Republicans running, so I think this one heads to a run-off.Projected Winner: Run-Off
Well, there it is, let the arguing begin, but if I say you are gonna lose, you are gonna lose. Not really, as primary races are so much harder for me to predict, but I hope this is fun. The Democratic predictions will be coming later, or tomorrow morning.
