Contingency Plan

All successful entrepreneurs and politicians plan ahead.  A strategic method of planning that provides prepared alternative responses to contingent outcomes allows an individual to minimise the chances of being caught by surprise.  I expect both the KMT and DPP have their responses to the forecasted results of the coming municipal elections ready at hand.  What I thought I'd do here is see if I can predict the responses of the parties in different scenarios:

Scenario 1 - KMT Wins Taipei, Xinbei & Taichung, DPP Wins Tainan, Kaohsiung

KMT Response: "This proves that the voters support the Government's cross-strait and economic policies and agree that the ECFA is driving growth in the economy.  Voters rejected a politics of ethnic tension, corruption and provoking cross-strait hostility.  The Republic of China has proven itself today to be a strong, sovereign and democratic nation whose voters demand the highest standards of Government and reject those who would seek to create an unclean and corrupt environment."

DPP Response: "We are disappointed with the results. We needed to work harder to reach out to the swing and independent voters."

Scenario 2 - KMT Wins Xinbei & Taichung, DPP Wins Taipei, Tainan, Kaohsiung

KMT Response: "We are very disappointed with the results.  Our polling indicated that Hau would win and we are worried that there may have been an error in counting.  We are concerned that voters will feel frustrated if the Taipei City Government now confronts and obstructs the policies of the Central Government.  This result however proves that voters do not see Tsai as capable leader.  It will be hard for the DPP to now prove that Tsai is a good choice for the Presidential elections, her real goal." 

DPP Response: "This result should be a wake up call for the Central Government.  The voters rejected City Hall's corruption and have decided to restore balance to the political system to counteract the KMT's dominance of the Executive and Legislative Yuans.  We hope that the Central Government will respect the jurisdictional differences between national and local governments."

Scenario 3 - KMT Wins Taichung, DPP Wins Taipei, Xinbei, Tainan, Kaohsiung

KMT Response: "We are devastated by these results that have gone against public expectations.  We will examine the results to ensure that procedures were followed correctly. We will look honestly at ourselves and evaluate why the public chose a party of corruption over constitutional government.  We warn the new Municipal Government's not to provoke the democratically elected Central Government and avoid causing ethnic tensions.  Cross-strait negotiations and party to party communications will now be located in Taichung City for security and convenience."

DPP Response:  "We are very pleased with the results. Voters have declared that it is time for a change, a change from the usual dirty politics and incompetence. We hope that the Central Government will respect the voter's choices and the jurisdictional and constitutionally defined differences between national and local government authority and not resort to anti-democratic means to take revenge."    

Scenario 4 - DPP Wins Taipei, Xinbei, Taichung, Tainan, Kaohsiung

KMT Response: "We strongly oppose what we feel may have been clear errors in procedure since the results do not meet polls, public opinion or expectations.  This election was stolen by DPP lies and disinformation.  We call on our supporters to gather in Taipei to protest the manipulation of results.  If the results are allowed to stand, Taiwanese will ultimately suffer greatly because this has allowed the corrupt party of Chen Shui-bian to return to power.   We are extremely concerned that voters will feel frustrated if the Municipal Governments now confront and obstruct the policies of the Central Government leading to ethnic tension and Taiwan losing all it has gained in cross-strait relations."  

DPP Response:  "We are delighted with the results.  Voters have sent a clear message to Ma's Government that they do not accept the KMT's administrative negligence, corruption, judicial interference and pro-China cross-strait policies. We hope that the Central Government will respect the voter's choices and the jurisdictional and constitutionally defined differences between national and local government authority and not resort to anti-democratic means to take revenge."