Predicting Economic Recovery

Something that has always perplexed me about the American economy is how do we expect to maintain long-term economic growth when 70% of that growth is predicated on consumption? I have just never been made to realize how that is sustainable. Robert Reich makes a similar point with regard to people's predictions about how and when our economy will recover:

My prediction, then? Not a V, not a U. But an X. This economy can't get back on track because the track we were on for years -- featuring flat or declining median wages, mounting consumer debt, and widening insecurity, not to mention increasing carbon in the atmosphere -- simply cannot be sustained.

The X marks a brand new track -- a new economy. What will it look like? Nobody knows. All we know is the current economy can't "recover" because it can't go back to where it was before the crash. So instead of asking when the recovery will start, we should be asking when and how the new economy will begin. More on this to come.