New Poll Magically (& Conveniently) Delivers Golden 60% Support For ECFA

In November 2009 Premier Wu Den-yih (吳敦義) had this to say about the review of the ECFA in the Legislative Yuan:

He added that the government would make public its content “at an appropriate time, brief the legislature and let the lawmaking body review it.”

“If it doesn’t pass the legislature, it will not be implemented,” he said. “We will do our best to be as transparent as possible. Please rest assured that we will take a Taiwan-centered approach while furthering the public’s interests.”

On December 7th 2009, Premier Wu stated the following:

An ECFA can be signed as long as three conditions are met: The nation needs it, the public supports it and there is legislative oversight, he said, adding that the ECFA will proceed as scheduled — meaning that it should be inked at the fifth round of cross-strait talks early next year.

“That’s the plan for now, but we need more public support,” Wu said. “Surveys conducted recently showed that approval rates were between 50 and 56 percent. If the rate goes above 60 percent and the disapproval rate falls below 20 percent that will be better for signing the ECFA.”

On November 11th 2009 on this blog I stated the following:

"I predict what will happen is that a series of polls by a combination of MAC, SEF, UDN, Apple Daily, China Times and TVBS will all show support for ECFA rising above 60% conveniently at a time when the President most wishes to sign the ECFA agreement. This is a policy (not in their election manifesto) the KMT are determined to carry out so the polls will serve as a justification, they will certainly not be allowed to affect the course of events."

and ...

"Bottom line: no poll or march or protest will be allowed to stop the juggernaut of KMT-CCP integration from moving forward ... with the international community buying hook line and sinker the 'peace in our time' mantra of Ma and his cohort"

And what happened today (July 7th 2010), just a week or so after the ECFA agreement was signed?

Predictably, a poll came out seemingly confirming that the public support ECFA - a poll conducted by the Taiwan-based China Credit Information Service, Ltd., commissioned by the Mainland Affairs Council, the same council that lobbied hard for the Referendum Review Commission to reject a referendum on ECFA: (Thanks to MT for bringing this to our attention)

The poll found that nearly 61 percent support the ECFA negotiation results. A resounding 79.3 percent endorsed the government’s handling of cross-strait affairs via the institutionalized negotiations. Only 15.9 percent disapproved of the government’s conduct.

Let's take a second to review some more poll results:

Mainland Affairs Council poll (by Berkeley BIGC) April 11 2009
Up to 70 percent of Taiwanese say there is a need to conclude an Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement with China

Global Views Magazine Dec 2009
54.4% say signing ECFA is important for Taiwan's economy.

Premier Wu December 2009 (See above)
About 50-56% in favour of ECFA

Global Views Magazine ... also here - March 2010
46% in favour of ECFA

China Times Public Opinion Poll (KNN) (support for signing ECFA)
July 2009: 51.7%
April 2010 47.5%

Taipei Times (Anti-ECFA) June 2010
Approval for ECFA remains below 50%. 60-80% want a referendum

Let's just say that most polls in Taiwan are biased. Global Views seems to be one that is given a lot of respect by people across the political spectrum and the last poll it conducted found 46% in favour of ECFA whilst even the China Times could only must 47.5%.

We are to believe from a Government sponsored poll with laughably slanted questions that suddenly 47.5% has transformed in the space of 3 months into 61% support. What could be the reason for this?

a) The poll was so leading in its questions that its results inevitably led to false positives
b) Taiwanese have capitulated and resigned themselves to an inevitability of the post-ECFA road to gradual unification and now, like Big Brother, have come to love it.
c) About 13.5% of Taiwanese have switched positions and now support ECFA.

I'll let you decide ....

... And finally, here is some related information. Many people in Taiwan are realising that the first building blocks of economic and then political unification of Taiwan and China have been put in place, but what do Taiwanese think about unification? Here's a Global Views Poll: (Click to enlarge).
Grey Line = status quo now and see what happens
Red Line = independence
Organge Line = status quo for good
Black Line = unification