Sunday, January 31, 2010

U.S. Playing Hardball With UBS

http://assets.nydailynews.com/img/2009/02/20/alg_ubs.jpg
According to the Swiss "justice minister" the U.S. is playing hardball with UBS, and could cause the largest Swiss bank to fail if they pull their license:
She warned the actions of UBS in the United States would threaten all of the bank's activities if its license were to be revoked in the United States.

While Switzerland and the US had negotiated an agreement, under which UBS would hand over information on some 4,500 account holders to the IRS, a Swiss court ruling earlier this month has put the deal in doubt.
Wow. I had wondered how the U.S. was getting UBS to play ball, but now it all makes sense. Threaten to pull the banks charter and seize their assets if they don't cooperate and they would have to cooperate to avoid failure. Hardball to be sure, but I expect an agreement will be reached as a result.

SOTU Toon

http://www.bartcop.com/let%27s-agree.JPG

Can Sarah Palin Save America?

I didn't know we needed saving, but I think the short answer is HELL NO!!! Still, this is funny:
http://img.wonkette.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/palinmagazine.jpg

H/T - Wonkette

The Late Howard Zinn (RIP and sorely missed) and Links


  • 10 China myths and possible rebuttals from Derek Scissors of the Heritage Foundation
  • EVA's co-worker Chang Hung-lin 張宏林 critiques Taiwan's recycling policies - turns out the need to meet contract terms comes before delivering appropriate solutions at an appropriate scale.
  •  Preventative measures or cynical land grab? Taiwan aborigines protest post-Morakot relocation policies.
  • 9th Round of Tibet-Beijing talks: don't hold your breath.
  • Taiwan's national sovereignty and dignity won't be affected by ECFA - easy to say when you don't regard Taiwan as having an sovereignty in the first place.  Foreign observers need to get smart on this point soon - they need to understand that the KMT Ma administration does not recognise that Taiwan has any sovereignty, only the ROC.
  • Ma won't suffer the indignity of being summoned by the Control Yuan over his leadership of Taipei City and his decisions to extend the Muzha MRT line and build the defunct Maokong Gondola. No, instead, Ma will summon the Control Yuan.  Not for him the symbolic humiliation that should only be the burden of upstarts and revolutionaries like Former President Chen. 
  • Foreign experts inveigle Taiwanese into believing that signing ECFA will lead to FTAs with other countries.
  • Journeyman Pictures interviewed President Chen in 2005 - two things of note: One the movie makers consistently refer to Taiwan as 'Chinese' (e.g. they flew out of Chinese airspace) though they do also state that the majority of Taiwanese support their de facto independence.  Another is the appearance of Su Chi to represent the KMT side: "Half of Taiwan see Chen as the President and the other half see him as a crook" and "Chen staged the shooting".  Its an interesting if belittling (to Taiwan and Chen) analysis and noteworthy also for the Taiwanese couple who moaned that China is so big and Taiwanese should focus on economy and not other issues.  That mindset got Ma Ying-jeou elected, something many Taiwanese are now starting to sorely regret.

Saturday, January 30, 2010

Why the birthrate is falling

EVA likes to surf BBS which is a very popular and huge forum system used by Taiwanese to spread info and share opinion (on average 39,000 people are using it at any time). On one of the topic lists, it shows a ranking by use and popularity. Here is a snap shot from tonight's ranking which I proffer as conclusive proof of why Taiwan's birthrate is falling:

Gossiping is number one?  At least sex notionally beat baseball but it got beaten into third by World Of Warcraft.   Following the 'beautiful game' we get a liturgy of superficiality followed curiously by tennis at No.9 and something called StupidClown rounding out the Top 10.  Here's EVA's lowdown on what's behind the stats.

First the sex board.  Actually its  phyric victory because apparently upon being created it was deluged with misogynistic comments, many claiming metric measurements for anatomical parts that were clearly more based on hope than reality.  Despite the fun had by everyone, after a while it was decided that some balance was needed so a femininesex board was created which catered to providing a source of more accurate and helpful information.

Furthermore, the No.1 popular topic, Gossiping, is actually used by journalists in Taiwan to get the scoop on what's happening in the celebrity world.

Indicative of the economy we live in? - 'part-time' was the 19th popular (out of 100s).

Climate Denial Crock of the Week

Bialetti Collection




Temos a colecção completa da Bialetti, enviamos à cobrança para qualquer parte de Portugal ou do Mundo sem ter de sair de casa ou empresa. Comercializamos também o café para a sua maquina de café Bialetti.


We have a complete collection of Bialetti, send the collection to any part of Portugal or the world without leaving home or business. We also sell coffee for your coffee machine Bialetti.



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Telf: 214 867 378
Lisboa / Portugal

Friday, January 29, 2010

Projecto de Interiores

Quer decorar / remodelar a sua sala e não sabe a quem recorrer? 4UDECOR -Design de Interiores trata de tudo para si sem ter de se preocupar com nada. Apresentamos sempre um projecto 3D da sua futura sala para que possa visualiza-la antes da adjudicação. Com uma enorme variedade de marcas e uma linha própria - 4UDECOR, conseguimos dar resposta a todas as solicitações por mais excêntricas que possam parecer. Teste-nos hoje mesmo e sinta a diferença.

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Telf: 214 867 378
Lisboa / Portugal

Thursday, January 28, 2010

Candeeiros Suspensos

Aqui encontra uma enorme diversidade de candeeiros suspensos.

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Telf: 214 867 378
Lisboa / Portugal

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Catch Roy Moore At The Tea Party Convention

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Gi7NXwCDQxU/SiXG-UThpyI/AAAAAAAADTY/a2oNraEKSro/s400/Roy_MooreX390.jpg
For all those that shelled out the $560 plus expenses to attend the for profit "National Tea Party Convention" I have a pleasant surprise for you (in case you didn't know); ROY MOORE!!! That's right, for shelling out your hard-earned money so someone else can make a buck you get ROY MOORE. I hope this enthuses you to the point of elation.

If you should get to Nashville and decide that you wasted that $560 on ROY MOORE, then might I recommend the Bluebird Cafe instead. But beware, by missing ROY MOORE, you might also miss the second coming of Christ as well, who apparently speaks strictly through ROY MOORE,

Refusing To Blog About The SOTU & Rebuttal

http://www.sanfranciscosentinel.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/obama-state-of-union-2009.jpg
Sorry, I will be abstaining from blogging about the President's State of the Union address tonight and the GOP rebuttal as I see nothing different from the last 14 or 15 I have watched in my lifetime. Can we please start doing this monstrosity in writing again?


**Footnote*** All those speeches I have watched were better than the likewise titled XXX movie.***

WDI Holds Workshop in Japan



Students work with Bojana Skrt on their affirmative cases


Prof. Narahiko Inoue in his office full of debate books


The World Debate Institute at the University of Vermont in cooperation with Prof. Narahiko Inoue and Kyushu University are holding a four-day policy debate workshop in Fukuoka, Japan.


The workshop is for beginners and is debating the national Japanese policy topic, that Japan should terminate the Japan-US security treaty. The workshop is being led by WDI Fellows Bojana Skrt of Slovenia and Alfred Snider of WDI USA.


"The students are very enthusiastic but policy debate can be challenging for new debaters. Four days isn't a lot of time but they seem to be warming to it quickly and showing a lot of knowledge and skill," said Snider.


The program is a continuation of previous programs sponsored by Kyushu University that have included a Bioethics Debate Tournament as well as a parliamentary debate workshop taught by Loke Wing Fatt of Singapore.


POLICY DEBATE WORKSHOP

KYUSHU UNIVERSITY

Friday (1/22)

13:00 - 14:30. Session 1. What is debate, why is it important? Snider

14:50 - 16:20. Session 2. Elements of Debating & Exercises Snider

16:40 - 18:10. Session 3. Debate Education in Europe and the USA Skrt & Snider

Saturday (1/23)

8:40 - 10:10. Session 4. Stock Issues & Duties of the Speakers

10:30 - 12:00. Session 5. Argumentation & Exercises

lunch break

13:00 - 14:30. Session 6. Notetaking, Organization & Exercises

14:50 - 16:20. Session 7. Affirmative Strategy Theory

16:40 - 18:10. Session 8. Affirmative Strategy Exercises

Sunday (1/24)

8:40 - 10:10. Session 9. Negative Strategy

10:30 - 12:00. Session 10. Negative Strategy Exercises

lunch break

13:00 - 14:30. Session 11. Cross Examination & Exercises

14:50 - 16:20. Session 12. Work with instructors on Affirmative Cases

16:40 - 18:10. Session 13. Work with instructors on Negative arguments

Monday (1/25)

8:40 - 10:10. Session 14. Practice debate session

10:30 - 12:00. Session 15. Exhibition debate and invite the public.

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Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Government using Taipower to spread ECFA message

The following pamphlet was inside my Taipower electricity bill this month (see below and click to enlarge). My questions are:
  • Is the Government allowed by law to use a Government run company to send policy promotion material to citizens?
  • If it is allowed, is it morally questionable and an abuse of resources?
  • Did the Government get permission from the THSRC company to use an image of its train on their cover?




No Beau For Deleware, By The Numbers

http://www.historyguy.com/politics/joe_biden_and_beau_biden.jpg
I actually did a little 2010 work today and looked at the Delaware Senate race with no Beau Biden and must say, to my disappointment, it doesn't look good for the Democrats. Let's get a general overview before we delve into what little relevant numbers (minus Beau Biden) there are.

The GOP has basically chosen the lone Representative from the state, Mike Castle, to replace sitting VP Joe Biden as 1 of the 2 Senators from Delaware. Mr. Castle is a former Lt. Governor, Governor, and since 1993 lone Representative (and therefore elected statewide since 1993) of the state of Delaware. It should also be noted that Mr. Castle has repeatedly polled either just above or below Attorney General Biden before Biden's announcement that he would not run.

The Democrats have been left somewhat sprawling for a candidate after the loss of Beau and the neglect of current place holder Ted Kaufman. The latest emerging candidate is New Castle County Executive Chris Coons. Another name that has been throw around is former Lt. Gov. Jack Carney, but he is expected to run for Castle's open seat.

Now, here are some numbers:
  • Democrats consistently have won Delaware with frequency in recent presidential elections. Obama carried the state by 25 points, but Kerry only by 7.
  • Joe Biden consistently carried the state by at least double-digits and won his last election by 30-points.
  • Likewise, Castle has consistently carried the state by double-digits and won his last reelection by about 22-points
  • The most recent polling I have seen has Castle defeating Coons by a total of 56%-27%.
  • The same Rasmussen poll has Castle's Fav/Unfav at 66%/25%, and Coons at 47%-37%.
Now, what do these numbers mean? First of all, they mean that, absent an emerging candidate, this is beginning to look like a more and more favorable seat for the GOP to pick up. Second, Coons overall polling numbers don't worry me so much, as there are still a number of votes still on the table, but for a relatively unknown candidate he already has his negatives above 35%. In other words, his campaign hasn't begun yet and a little damage will put it on life support. On the flip-side, Castle's negatives are at 25% and is obviously trusted by voters that sent Biden and Obama to Washington without much of a challenge. Conclusion, in a state that has been so blue nationally lately (a fact I think some put too much emphasis on) people are rightly beginning to see this as a likely GOP pickup or at least leaning that direction in the fall. Absent an emerging candidate that can catalyze the base in voter heavy New Castle county and raise a lot of money in the next 4-5 months this is probably another GOP victory.

H/T - Poliblog

2nd Asia-Pacific Greens Network Conference


English Language Version:


Organised by the Green Party Taiwan, the 2nd APGN conference is a meeting of Green Parties and Friends of Green Movements throughout the Asia-Pacific region. Whilst world leaders failed in Copenhagen, APGN2010 hopes to at least bring the issues home and co-ordinate action and political pressure on green issues, including things like democracy and peace. They need donations asap.

www.apgn2010.org for details.

Video done by Me and EVA.

Kartell Bourgie - Lady Gaga

A nova musica de Lady Gaga - Bad Romance conta com os candeeiros Bourgie, Kartell, como elemento de decoração, visível nesta imagem do videoclip. Click na fotografia para ver e ouvir este novo sucesso de Lady Gaga.


Encomende já / Order Now:
geral@4udecor.com
Telf: 214 867 378
Lisboa / Portugal

Monday, January 25, 2010

An interesting article on KMT-CCP talks

Bilboard in Taipei - nice to see a real life sized model for a change.

This is worth a read.

Robert de Niro To Play George Wallace

http://www.kennesaw.edu/pols/3380/pres/pics/nix83.jpg
According to several news sources Robert de Niro has been cast as George Wallace in the upcoming movie "Selma":
Robert De Niro has been attached to play Alabama Governor George Wallace (pictured) in the Civil Rights movie Selma, which is likely to be the next movie from Lee Daniels, director of Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire.

The article mentions a few of De Niro's projects including "a showy role playing Gov George Wallace in 'Precious' director Lee Daniels' next pic about desegregation...

As far as Selma, ComingSoon.net spoke briefly to Daniels about the project last October, which you can read here, and the attachment of De Niro to such a prominent role certainly bodes well for the project moving forward soon, especially with the amount of good will Daniels has earned from the awards buzz that Precious has been garnering over the last few months.

PS3 Finally Hacked

http://static.arstechnica.com/Gaming/ps3hack.jpg
3 years after its release, the PS3 has finally been hacked:
Famous iPhone hacker George Hotz, aka "GeoHot", has become the first to achieve the feat, though what this means for the PS3 modding community remains to be seen.

"I have read/write access to the entire system memory, and HV level access to the processor," Hotz wrote on his blog. "In other words, I have hacked the PS3. The rest is just software. And reversing. I have a lot of reversing ahead of me, as I now have dumps of LV0 and LV1. I've also dumped the NAND without removing it or a modchip."

You can keep up with the project by following Hotz's blog or Twitter.

Lieberman To Probably Remain An Independent

Turncoat Democratic Senator Joe Lieberman stated this week that it is possible he would swap to the GOP, but will most likely remain an independent:
Kerelawanan merupakan salah satu pola alternatif gerakan. Ini merupakan gaung resonansi dalam menumbuhkembangkan gerakan kepada pihak lain. Tipologi gerakan mahasiswa yang khas harus diimbangi dengan analisis berdasarkan data yang valid.

Malam ini teman Garuts bercerita tentang aksi demonstrasi besar-besaran terkait satu tahun pemerintahan Aceng Fikri-Diki Candra.

Teman Garut telah mendampingi 17 ormas dalam proses pendampingan advokasi. tapi yang aktif hanya 10 ormas.

Dari Temans Garut

Kerelawanan merupakan salah satu pola alternatif gerakan. Ini merupakan gaung resonansi dalam menumbuhkembangkan gerakan kepada pihak lain. Tipologi gerakan mahasiswa yang khas harus diimbangi dengan analisis berdasarkan data yang valid.

Malam ini teman Garuts bercerita tentang aksi demonstrasi besar-besaran terkait satu tahun pemerintahan Aceng Fikri-Diki Candra.

Teman Garut telah mendampingi 17 ormas dalam proses pendampingan advokasi. tapi yang aktif hanya 10 ormas. Awalnya sekretariat di MUI, tetapi ketika ketua MUI mendukung salah satu kandidat untuk menjadi Sekda, maka agar tidak terlalu condong ke muatan politis maka sekretariat teman-teman pindah.

Cadeira Lounger Jaime Hayon

Foi apresentada na Maison & Objet a novíssima criação de Jaime Hayon, Lounger, mais uma grande peça no seguimento da elegância da colecção showtime, BD Barcelona. O conforto desta cadeira é inconfundível onde estão patentes o confronto entre o clássico e o moderno, com acabamentos de elevada qualidade em tecido ou pele.


Encomende já / Order Now:
geral@4udecor.com
Telf: 214 867 378
Lisboa / Portugal

Reifying the Chinese claim on Taiwan

Those who have paid close attention to Taiwanese politics since the change in ruling parties in 2008 may have noticed a change in nomenclature. This change has primarily taken the form of downplaying 'Taiwan' as a cultural and political node and re-emphasising 'China' or more specifically 'Chinese culture'. Thus, we see President Ma and his administration rarely using the word 'Taiwan' in the context of 'the nation' or 'national identity'. Instead, this administration has emphasised the primacy of the 'Republic of China', the still official name of the country as codified in the 1946 Constitution, implemented to legitimise Chinese rule of Taiwan. As evidenced by the Act Governing Relations between the Mainland Area and the Taiwan Area, Taiwan is to be regarded as simply 'a region' in the R.O.C. and NOT as a national territory in its own right.

The reasons?

1. Validating the legitimacy of the R.O.C to encompass and administer Taiwan is the bedrock of KMT legitimacy in the country. Without the R.O.C, the necessity of having a Chinese Nationalist Party becomes redundant and illogical.

2. It is the primary means by which unification between R.O.C and P.R.C can be facilitated. If Taiwan is the nation, that would mean officially recognising two countries on either side of the strait - something unacceptable to both KMT and CCP.

3. In order for the public to accept unification (annexation), the Taiwan consciousness that was built under Presidents Lee and Chen must be rolled back. Taiwanese need to be 're-educated' in the fact that they are Chinese, both culturally and politically. Once they accept their Chinese identity, it is thought that they will have no problems with being part of China, whether as an SAR of the PRC or otherwise.

4. It is a means to pacify the P.R.C. Beijing can unofficially accept Taiwan as R.O.C since that entails it remaining within the Chinese diaspora and sphere of influence. Without the R.O.C, PRC claims to Taiwan are patently absurd.

5. Downgrading Taiwan as a region of the R.O.C is a way to shift the 'status-quo' away from Taiwan as 'de facto independent' and towards Taiwan as 'de facto China'. Since the majority of Taiwanese have come to desire permanent retention of the status quo of Taiwan as de facto independent, it is much easier to change the meaning of 'status-quo' rather than change the perceptions and desires of Taiwanese. This is a complex word game. E.G Most people like oranges but the Government wants them to like apples. So you change the meaning of the word 'oranges' to indicate apples and, voila!, most people now like apples.

Evidence?

A recent news item demonstrates how the KMT wishes to end the debate over Taiwan's status once and for all and reify the R.O.C's legitimacy on Taiwan:
... the government plans to put historical documents concerning Taiwan on exhibition next year to mark the 100th anniversary of the Republic of China (ROC), a source from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said.

Among international treaties to be displayed are those signed by the Qing imperial government and the ROC with other countries, such as the Treaty of Shimonoseki.

The exhibition will travel across the country to show that Taiwan’s sovereignty undoubtedly belongs to the ROC, the source said.
But there are problems with this thinly veiled move:
Honorary professor at National Taipei University and historian Chen Ching-jen (鄭欽仁) criticized the planned exhibition as move by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) government to “Sinicize Taiwan.”

Cheng said the occupation of Taiwan by KMT troops at the end of World War II did not mean that Taiwan’s sovereignty was transferred to the ROC.

He said that in both the San Francisco Peace Treaty of 1952 and the Treaty of Taipei, Japan only agreed to cede its rights and claim over Taiwan, but did not mention to whom.

The true spirit of the San Francisco Peace Treaty then, Cheng said, was to return the sovereignty of Taiwan to Taiwanese.

He also said President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) stressed during the presidential campaign that the sovereignty of Taiwan belongs to the public, and that the public would have the final say about the future of Taiwan.

“Ma should remember his promise,” Cheng said, adding that the government’s plan to prove that Taiwan belongs to the ROC only shows that the KMT still has the mentality of a foreign regime, despite the fact that it had lost power once and only returned to power through elections.
One last issue is national sovereignty as embodied in direct elections within Taiwan for the Taiwan President. This was the DPP's main goal of constitutional reform and it is the single most concrete obstacle blocking annexation. If one directly elects ones own President then that infers political sovereignty and independence. The only way to reverse this would be to either a) rename the President as Chief Executive or b) allow Chinese (PRC) citizens to vote in the Taiwan Presidential election, neither of which would at this time be acceptable to most Taiwanese.

I suspect the Government intends to quietly shift the goal posts so that officially, Taiwan is a part of China (PRC & ROC in a new unified polity) without making changes that would officially indicate Taiwanese have lost their sovereignty. First step? “Sinicize Taiwan” as if the last 14 years had never happened.

Finally, how does one celebrate the 100th year of a polity without a majority of citizens really caring for that polity in name or substance? Well, you need to build public enthusiasm but you also need to be careful not to specifically mention the ROC too much or the celebrations will be largely ignored or scorned as being a self-aggrandising waste of money. To whit, see how the following article avoids mentioning ROC or 'Chinese':

The government will ask the public for ideas on how the nation should celebrate the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Republic of China, said Emile Chih-jen Sheng, minister of the Council for Cultural Affairs.

Details will be released by the end of January, Sheng said, adding that the theme of the centennial celebrations will be “Let the world see Taiwan, and let Taiwan envisage its future.” (This is clever. It appears as if the Government is Taiwan-centric as it actually goes about planning a celebration of China, and of a polity that was imported lock, stock and barrel in 1949)

The minister made his remarks during a wide-ranging television interview broadcast Jan. 24. “This anniversary is the business of all our citizens. The celebration will be a platform to show the world Taiwan’s cultural achievements.” (Again, an appropriation of 'Taiwan's culture' - the subtext being that 'Taiwan's culture' is 'Chinese culture'.)

During the interview, Sheng also spoke on the recently passed Cultural Creativity Act. The act will try to promote the local cultural industry by offering “cultural experience tickets,” which will enable students to watch cultural productions, and providing ticket discounts to the general public. These tickets and discounts will be limited to performances put on by Taiwanese groups.

Upon being asked exactly how much money the government would provide for these shows, Sheng did not give definitive answers, but replied, “The Cultural Creativity Act is applicable to 16 forms of arts and performances, and we will gradually apply the law to these 16 art forms.

“A draft proposal of complementary measures will be completed in the next two to three months at the latest, and after receiving input from the public, it will be finalized within six months.”

“In France, master chefs who have received star ratings spend one month in a year preparing meals in elementary schools, so that the students get to know what French cuisine is like. The fees are paid for by the schools,” Sheng noted.

“That’s how you pass down cultural heritage,” he continued. “Culture is not something for a few. If Taiwan wants to cultivate a cultured public, it has to start from the young.” (Which is exactly what the Japanese and the KMT did during their respective colonisations of Taiwan - indoctrinate the young to love either the Emperor or CKS / Sun Yat-sen / R.O.C)

Sheng also spoke on the Creative Cultural Institute, which the act calls on the government to establish. “Taiwan has an Institute for Information Industry and a Commerce Development Research Institute, both of which gather information on current trends throughout the world. But up until now we have lacked an institute that would do something similar for culture.”

“The job of the institute will be to provide annual reports, help those in the creative industry find information, assist them with obtaining loans, or lead them on overseas tours. It will not be a research institute, but an executive one.”

Asked to respond to criticisms that the act not only will not help raise cultural awareness, but will popularize and hence cheapen culture, the minister said that the creativity sector and maintaining a high level of culture are two different things, and not at all in conflict.

“What we are after is increasing the number of participants in cultural events. If the number of those with an interest in culture increases, the level of culture will rise as well.”

The goal? Through culture and education, Taiwanese are to be retaught to identify with China or 'Chinese culture' and think of themselves as part of China's historical arc of development. As one prominent lawyer said to me recently, Ma and hard-line KMT members still regard themselves as the legitimate inheritors and successors of the Qing dynasty and the history of the Chinese nation. They see themselves as the guardians of the line of succession against the upstart P.R.C. The Taiwanese? My guess is they want to be left alone to run their own country if it weren't for the threat from the PRC to invade and the attempts of the quisling KMT to hold onto power and relevance at any cost.

Papel de Parede Mise en Scene



Papel de Parede da colecção Mise en Scene "ilumina" a sua parede graças às fibras vegetais nele incluído transformando qualquer decoração num ambiente de requinte e elegância. Disponível em 14 cores.
Consulte-nos hoje mesmo:
geral@4udecor.com
Telf: 214 867 378
Lisboa / Portugal

Sunday, January 24, 2010

Best Sunday Show Discussion This Week

I thought C-SPAN had the best discussion this Sunday on all that has transpired this week. It features Byron York & Christopher Hayes:

Dry County

I couldn't believe these guys were from Canada, good stuff though:



LINK

Coordination Meeting Pattiro Indonesia

Mercure Hotel, Ancol-Jakarta
24-26 Januari 2010


Pemandangan dari kamar hotel



Laut biru menuju Pulau Kalimantan

CCP Officials criticise jailing of Liu Xiaobo

Positive news from China coming courtesy of the Guardian. Four communist party officials have signed a letter calling for Liu Xiaobo's release:

Four senior Communist party officials known for their liberal views are pushing for the release of an imprisoned Chinese dissident who had called for political reform.

The four have signed a strongly worded letter addressed to "incumbent party and government leaders", urging authorities to reconsider the verdict against Liu Xiaobo, who was sentenced in December to 11 years in prison on subversion charges.

The letter did not call specifically for Liu's release, but He Fang, one of its signatories, said its purpose was "to reverse the verdict and to find that Liu is not guilty and to release him. Also, to safeguard the constitution and the rights of freedom of speech."

Liu was the co-author of Charter 08, an unusually direct appeal for political liberalisation in China, which was signed by more than 300 people including some of China's top intellectuals. Rights groups have said the harshness of Liu's sentence was a warning to others who challenged China's one-party rule.

The open letter was written by Hu Jiwei, a former editor of the People's Daily newspaper, a mouthpiece of the Communist party. The signatories are all in their 80s and 90s, according to the letter; their age could provide them with a degree of protection from harassment.

It said the main evidence against Liu was that he had called for the establishment of a Chinese "federal republic." Hu and other signers contend that the term was a "correct slogan" used in the early days of the Chinese Communist party.

"If the judge violates the constitution and has no knowledge of the history of the party … and makes false and incorrect accusations that will seriously tarnish the image of the country and the party, then it's difficult to prove that China is a country ruled by law and a harmonious society," said the letter.

The other signers were Li Pu, a former deputy chief of the official Xinhua news agency, and Dai Huang, a former Xinhua senior reporter. He Fang is an honorary member of the academic committee at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

Liu, a former university professor, spent 20 months in jail for joining the 1989 student-led protests in Tiananmen Square. He has been the only person arrested over the charter, but rights groups said several signers had been harassed or fired from their jobs.

Saturday, January 23, 2010

President Ma on ECFA

In an extended interview with the Taipei Times, President Ma made attempts to better explain what kind of agreement ECFA is and why he believes an ECFA is so important to Taiwan. Part 1 and Part 2 here. Whilst there is little in terms of new comment from Ma, there were a number of comments I found interesting:
TT: What about the proposed economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA)? You said Taiwan would benefit by signing an ECFA with China. Will you include different voices from the opposition parties?

Ma: I will, and it is because of the opposition parties’ opinions that we made some changes in how we negotiate and how we communicate with the public. We will present a report to the legislature after holding formal negotiations with mainland China, and will also explain the matter to the public, so that people will understand what ECFA is. (but when? Ma keeps saying this but it seems Ma and his government will explain its contents fully AFTER it is signed and a fait accompli for the Legislature to rubber stamp. By that time any public concern or protest will be irrelevant and impotent)

The Ministry of Economic Affairs and the Mainland Affairs Council toured the country last year to explain the ECFA to the public and helped people from all walks of life know what kind of problems they would encounter. For example, the petrochemical industry wants us to sign an ECFA as soon as possible, so that it can enjoy export tariff cuts. (If you look at the boldened part of the paragraph above and then the last sentence that follows it, Ma's statement has no internal logic. He is saying "We travelled to tell people what problems policy A would given them. For example, industry X will benefit".)

As to whether the textile industry should be included in the “early harvest” list, I visited King Fu-lung Corporation in Shetou (社頭), which produces silk socks for the famous Huagui brand. The company’s president said the industry was willing to be on the list. I told him that if we put the industry on the list, they will receive a reduction in export tariffs, but the imports from China will also receive tariff cuts. Textile companies said they should be able to handle the situation.

The Ministry of Economic Affairs also discussed the issue with the towel and bedding industries, and they do not want to be on the early harvest list. We will either exclude them from the list or extend the grace period. The government will communicate with those who will be affected by an ECFA so that people will have a better understanding of what they need to plan for in the future. (Remember that the question asked about different voices from the opposition parties? Ma skips that in the first paragraph by claiming to 'have made some changes in how we negotiate and communicate with the public'. Instead, Ma attempts to paint a picture of corporatism at its finest. Need to win over the entire Textile Industry? Just speak to one company's President and then claim that all textile companies said they can handle the 'situation'.)
TT: You said the towel and bedding companies could be excluded from the early harvest list, but an ECFA is, after all, a mere transitional mechanism, and in the end, the country will still have to open for tariff concessions and more liberal trade. How will the government provide the needed assistance and help with industry transformation?

Ma: There are several ways to do it, including giving short-term assistance or helping businesses to transform themselves and increase their competitiveness. In the process of industrial development, Taiwan went from exporting agricultural and textile products to exporting electronics. Some industries must experience transformation in the process; this is a normal situation in the course of industrial development.

The government will spare no efforts to reduce the damage to local companies. The Ministry of Economic Affairs is planning on appropriating a NT$95 billion [US$2.9 billion] budget over 10 years to help local businesses. Why do we spend so much money and why don’t we just stay where we are? Because we will fall behind if we maintain the status quo. (This is 'Change We Can't Believe In' redux KMT style. You have to credit Ma for staying on message: No ECFA = fear, doom, the end, economic catastrophe, stuck in the past etc. He's been saying this since the idea of the agreement first leaked out. The problem with Ma's ECFA or Bust! theology is that it is one that puts nearly all Taiwan's eggs in the Chinese basket without even considering other ways to reinvigorate the economy. Here's just one ... How about moving away from export dependence and motivating companies and individuals to join a green industry revolution: one that would aim to cut carbon emissions by 90%, clean up the air, soil and water and create a sustainable tourism industry that, along with services, seals the gaps in income and employment generated by dumping old dirty industries. But then, inaugurating another science park that will almost certainly pollute land and water as well as threaten a species of dolphin's habitat is more like the way the KMT regards 'building for a sustainable future'.)
TT: Mr. President, you just mentioned that signing an ECFA is just the beginning. Can you tell us exactly where it will eventually lead Taiwan? Is it an interim agreement to a free-trade area? If so, then in accordance with the WTO, an open market for free trade and labor needs be set up within a 10-year time period. Wouldn’t that then contradict your promises to ban the import of more agricultural products and workers from China and more toward some kind of "one China market?"

Ma: First, we have to ask ourselves this question: Can we afford not to sign an ECFA? (YES!) Ten years ago, there were only three FTAs [free-trade agreements] in Asia, but the number jumped to 58 last year. The only two countries in Asia that do not have FTAs [with other Asian nations] are Taiwan and North Korea.

Taiwan has signed FTAs with five of its diplomatic allies in Central America. Although they have increased bilateral trade, the amount of the increase has been small.

So when we sign FTAs, we can do it with our major trading partners, such as mainland China, Japan, the US, ASEAN countries, the European Union, South Korea and Singapore.

However, we have encountered various obstacles over the past years. We launched FTA negotiations with Singapore about 10 years ago, but many factors made the attempt unsuccessful.

TT: What factors? Would you say China was the main factor?

Ma: That’s correct. And because of this, we want to talk with mainland China first. (Excuse me? China blocked Taiwan's FTA talks with Singapore but now we go to China with cap and bowl in hand asking them to give us a break. Ma is attempting to inveigle the Taiwanese public into believing that the Chinese have changed their position. China helps Ma by staying relatively quiet but they have nonetheless maintained that they do not wish Taiwan to sign FTAs with other countries. Ma keeps suggesting that once ECFA is signed China will 'allow' Taiwan to sign FTA's. Mainland Affairs Council Chair Lai Shin-yuan insisted that Taiwan will make its own FTA policy independent of China but Ma is arguing that it is through China, and with their blessing, that we will get the golden carrot of a FTA with a third country. I have no faith that China will agree to Taiwan signing FTAs before or after ECFA. But there's more ...)
TT: China has never promised that we could sign FTAs with other countries after we ink the ECFA with it.

Ma: Their position in the past (it is their position now too!) was against it and we know it. But we cannot stop developing our relationships with other countries simply because the Chinese Communists are against it. (no but the Chinese Government can stop you!)

We want to participate in UN activities, and we still have to make an effort despite the Chinese Communists’ opposition. Our efforts have paid off. We managed to participate in the World Health Assembly [WHA] and join the Government Procurement Agreement [GPA]. Where there is a will, there is a way. (The way here being subsuming your sovereignty by having your delegation be listed as Taiwan, China)

Mainland China has signed more than 10 FTAs. Once we ink an ECFA with the mainland, ASEAN countries will not reject the idea of talking with us. (Another unverifiable and quite undeliverable promise. 633 anyone?)

TT: The thing is, none of these countries has made such a promise. Don’t you think you are being overly optimistic?

Ma: That’s true, but Taiwan cannot simply depend on somebody else’s promise to survive in this world. (Ma should take a leaf out of his own book. I think the Taiwanese know better than anyone by now that they cannot simply depend upon Ma's promises to survive in this world. At least not if they want to exercise any continued autonomy and democracy.)

TT: Judging by your words, you seem to suggest that we would be limited to signing FTAs only with those countries that have signed FTAs with China.

Ma: I heard that’s mainland China’s view. (See Mike Turton's post: Ma was the one who said that so it is his view not China's: Asked whether Taiwan will sign FTAs with other countries after signing an ECFA with the mainland, President Ma answered, “It most certainly will.” “As long as other nations have already signed FTAs with the mainland, Beijing will have no objections if these countries wish to discuss similar deals with Taiwan,” the president said.) But when we negotiated an FTA with the US, China did not have an FTA with the US. The Chinese Communists and Singapore did not have an FTA when we began negotiations with Singapore. (Neither attempt to sign FTAs with the US or Singapore were successful in large part owing to Chinese pressure, regardless of whether it had an FTA with the relevant country)
So it shows that mainland China’s policy does not affect us. (Cough, splutter...! Didn't Ma just a few minutes previously say that China was the factor that blocked Taiwan from signing an FTA with Singapore? Oh, yes, that was OLD China. NEW China's policy is designed not to hinder Taiwan. Except that NEW China's bottom line hasn't changed, only its policy of how it will defend it). Our foreign policy and international relationships are independent. (Of reason and wisdom)

If we sign an ECFA with mainland China, the pressure and obstruction to our effort to sign FTAs with other countries will be reduced. (Another promise I suspect Ma will fail spectacularly to come through on. Note also Ma fails to name a cause for 'pressure and obstruction'. In his mind its not conducive to relations with China to blame them for the things they most patently do. Instead, its much better to go to negotiations with one eye blind and one hand tied behind your back so as to give the much bigger negotiator a more even playing field.)

The reason why we want to sign an ECFA is not other countries. If we don’t sign one, other countries will enjoy zero tariffs (A 'beautiful mind' forming a beautiful contradiction!) when they export products to China, while our products will lose their competitiveness because of higher tariffs.
TT: So that brings us back to our original question. Exactly where will the ECFA lead Taiwan, if it’s just the beginning?

Ma: First, it will help us catch up with the pace of economic integration in the region. There are 58 FTAs in Asia, but Taiwan has none. (Why can Joey play with the FTA and I can't? wah!) We have FTAs with our diplomatic allies in Central America, but we must remove the obstacles and sign more with other countries. The solution is to sign an ECFA with Beijing. (Here Ma makes his promise explicit. Sign an ECFA with China and that will remove the obstacles to Taiwan signing FTAs with other countries - there is as yet not one shred of earthly evidence that can be cited to back up Ma's supposition.)

Cross-strait trade in 2008 exceeded US$130 billion, but there was no mechanism in place to institutionalize the trade. If there is such a mechanism, it will not only reduce obstructions to our effort to sign FTAs with other countries (and again! Talk about tell a lie often enough ...), but also increase the ratio of our products in the Chinese market. (And what about the ratio of our products in other countries?)

An ECFA is conducive to Taiwan, but some local businesses will pay a price at the same time. We have conducted studies on the issue and held countless meetings to integrate opinions. (The KMT held countless meetings to sway and co-opt opinion. 'Integrating opinion' is the new bland phrase of the moment that sounds like building consensus without having the need to actually to it through sound and reasoned argument backed up by fact. No, Ma and the KMT will continue to 'integrate opinion' until opinion is no longer necessary to integrate, namely about 1 second after the wet ink of Taiwan's signature has splashed itself on the ECFA agreement.)

But it seems all of your questions presume that signing an ECFA will be negative to Taiwan. Do you think it’s better not to sign it? (And on to the offensive ... Much better option than actually trying to answer a question you don't know the answer to)
We wanted to negotiate an FTA with the US, but they have their own problems. Japan and South Korea did not dare to talk with us because they are afraid of the mainland. (Can you tell us why you think Japan and South Korea fear China Mr Ma? If they perceive a threat from China without Chinese missiles facing them, do you think it is wise for Taiwan to act like China doesn't threaten it?) So we begin with the mainland, hoping to negotiate a mechanism to institutionalize bilateral trade. Once we sign an ECFA with the mainland, we will have more opportunities. (OMM ... now chant with me until you believe it ... 'AFTER ECFA, FTAs HERE WE COME')
TT: Have any of these countries made any promises?

Ma: None of those countries have diplomatic ties with us. It’s very hard for them to make any promise. (In other words ... NO. Ma falls on the sharp edge of the lack of logic underpinning his 'ECFA will lead to other FTAs' argument. Here he is stripped bare and has to concede that not one statement from any country could be used to indicate that Taiwan could sign more FTAs with third countries after it sings ECFA. Surely, that lays to rest that particular misnomer and we can all go home now knowing that ECFA will not lead to FTAs with other countries?)

TT: You earlier said our questions seemed to presume that signing an ECFA would be negative to Taiwan. But it seems to many that your presumptions about an ECFA appear overly optimistic. Don’t you think you may be indulging in wishful thinking? (Have at you Sir! How do you like THEM apples?)

Ma: No. Since I took office [May 2008], cross-strait relations have improved. I said in my inaugural speech that if Taiwan continues to be isolated internally, cross-strait relations would be hard to develop. (I'm not sure what that means at all. Isolated internally?)

In the past, the Chinese Communist Party spared no effort to entice our diplomatic allies, but over the past 20 months our diplomatic relations have remained quite stable. (Let's see what happens in Haiti when the dust settles)

So when the cross-strait ties are stable, our international space also increases. (This is a specious and disingenuous claim. We participated in the WHA as Taiwan, China against the wishes of the Taiwanese people and against the dignity of their self evident sovereignty and we sent pro-unification Lien Chan to APEC in order to make friendly with President Hu) We finally participated in the WHA after 12 years of trying. The GPA took four years and there have also been concrete achievements in our participation in APEC.

These are not outstanding, but at least we have made some breakthroughs, thanks to the improvement of cross-strait relations. The policy has received recognition from the international community. (Who are mostly blind to the reality of Taiwanese opinion on the ground and are engaged in a love you-hate you complex as they eye the Chinese market and imagine that the Chinese Government is going to let them develop market dominance)

Of course, some people who are doubtful may say you are too naive or it’s too risky. But what other strategy can we use? (One that is not designed to end in annexation to China perhaps?) We already know what will happen if we adopt a belligerent approach on the diplomatic front. We secured three new diplomatic allies, but lost nine. (So Taiwan defends its own interests and it is 'belligerent' but when China complains about everything and anything to pressure countries to ignore Taiwan and threatens Taiwan with missiles then it is on a path of 'peaceful rise'?)

TT: Some people have proposed that when we negotiate an ECFA with Beijing, we ask it to stop obstructing us from signing FTAs with other countries, or demand the ECFA take effect in tandem with FTAs signed with the US or Japan.

Ma: I will convey your opinion to the Mainland Affairs Council and the Ministry of Economic Affairs. (or in other words ... 'whatever, its not going to happen - we don't negotiate like that. We don't have a bottom line. its the new 'position of strength and dignity')

TT: That’s not our opinion, but reflects the doubts some others have on the planned pact.

Ma: I know. That’s why I said I would let the government agencies deliberate on the proposal.

There may be remedies for diplomatic isolation, but economic seclusion will hurt our muscles and bones. So we must find a way out. That is why most businesses support signing an ECFA (do they? on what evidence is Ma making this claim and what types of businesses?), especially foreign investors in Taiwan. You are an English-language newspaper, so you must have read the White Papers released by the American Chamber of Commerce and European Chamber of Commerce. Before 2000, every year they urged the administration to open direct transportation links and liberalize cross-strait trade. (And the DPP tried and did a lot in unofficial negotiations but China prevented any development that could have been claimed by the DPP to be substantive) We didn’t make them write those White Papers, you know.
TT: These groups obviously had their own interests in mind when they penned their White Papers. During the Democratic Progressive Party [DPP] administration, they said direct transportation links would help Taiwan secure a FTA with the US. The two sides now have broader direct transportation links since you took office, but there are still no FTAs.

Ma: That’s because we just resumed the talks. It will take some time. (Ma here is appropriating the progress made under the DPP as that made by him alone. The truth is that the DPP did most of the work securing direct transport links and they had begun before Ma go into power. Only the frequency and official status of the links changed after Ma got into power)

As for the ECFA, the two sides completed their individual studies last year and a joint study was just made public (on Wednesday). The conclusion is that the ECFA will benefit both sides. (Surprise surprise!) It will boost Taiwan’s GDP by 1.6 percent to 1.7 percent and increase employment by some 200,000 people (ooohh ... I feel Ma may have just had another '633' moment here.) The negotiations will take time.

It took Singapore and the US three years to negotiate an FTA and about 10 years for ASEAN countries and mainland China.

TT: Given that, why the rush to launch official negotiations on an ECFA with China this month and to sign the pact in May? (good question)

Ma: Because we are already falling behind. If we don’t catch up now, we won’t be able to catch up in the future because we are already 10 years late. (It's now or never folks. You'll just have to believe me on that one and I should know, not being all that well versed in economics. If we don't sign ECFA it will mean THE END. There will be no future without it.)
TT: In numerous speeches you’ve often spoken of “listening to the people’s voice and letting the people be the boss.” Given that, will you reconsider holding a referendum to approve the signing of an ECFA, since a referendum is a way to directly reflect public opinion, as opposed to through the legislature, which is indirect democracy, especially in the wake of the ruckus over the amendment to the Local Government Act. That uproar suggested that KMT lawmakers were merely supporting the party’s decision instead of conveying the opinions of the voters in their districts.

Ma: We have enacted a lot of laws and pushed for the signing of agreements with other countries by winning the approval of the Legislative Yuan. (Examples please)

Referendums are a good approach and are a form of direct democracy, but they cost too much. And there are limitations. Not all government policy can be formed this way. As long as we can have good communications with the pubic and have sufficient discussion with legislators, I think this is normal and a way to follow most other democratic countries, which receive the approval of their congresses to ink pacts. (Note that Ma has changed from arguing against referendums on economic agreements that don't affect sovereignty to saying that communication with the public and legislators is sufficient)

Costa Rica is an exception because its congress has collapsed. Joining the European Common Market, or adopting the euro are different things and will have a bigger influence on people’s lives so they [European nations] held referendums to make the decision. (So ECFA will not have a big influence on people's lives?)

To solicit support from the public (or to claim that the support exists sure because we asked lots of people), we are sending government officials around the nation, including remote areas (Saturation of the ECFA or Bust! message is the key), to promote the ECFA. We are making an extra effort to explain clearly to those people who may suffer from the trade agreement about the possible impact. I think what we are doing should meet the requirements of a democratic country.

Most countries around the world are adopting the same approach when it comes to signing similar agreements. (Again, examples please ...)

TT: If an ECFA is signed, will both sides sign it under their status as WTO members? Will Taiwan register the signing of the ECFA with the WTO?

Ma: Yes. (This at least seems welcome. Let's see if it actually pans out that way. Before I get too enthusiastic perhaps I should remember that Taiwan is listed as a 'customs union' under the WTO and not a 'State') Only under the WTO framework can we offer tariff reductions just to mainland China. Usually such tariff cuts would have to apply to other countries as well. The signing of an ECFA will certainly meet the essence of the WTO.

TT: Does Taiwan have any countermeasures against the possible cancellation of the proposed ECFA by China, which could use it as a tactic to obstruct Taiwan’s efforts to enter into free-trade agreements with other countries?

Ma: This is merely an assumption. (But also by a factor of ten it is also a more credible and likely assumption than Beijing 'allowing' Taiwan to sign FTAs without countries after it signs an ECFA with China) This also leads back to my previous assertion that we should develop Taiwan’s foreign affairs and its relations with mainland China at the same time (or does he mean in co-ordination with each other e.g Check with China before MOFA makes a decision?). We hope to make it a positive cause-and-effect. If Taiwan is isolated on the international stage, it will be difficult to achieve further progress in cross-strait ties. (This is hilarious. Beijing is isolating Taiwan on the international stage and it also happens to be the one manipulating the other half of cross-strait ties. Cross-strait ties will surely improve once Ma moves Taiwan into Beijings sphere of influence and, ultimately, rule.) Taiwanese will feel they are losing their dignity since they cannot have a say in national affairs (Which nation's national affairs Mr Ma?). This will harm cross-strait relations. (And the prize for Most Insensible and Twisted Logical Construction goes to ...)

In the future, we will seek free-trade agreements by selecting countries that are easier to approach, as it will then be easier to make progress. We have been trying for many years. Taiwan has a small handful of trading partners. We will put them on our priority list because it will be less meaningful than signing free-trade agreements with other [non-allied] nations. But, we do not have to sign such agreement with all of them. We will be selective. We do not have to ink a trade pact with countries where it could have negative impact on some Taiwanese sectors, such as agriculture. (All of this is suppositional, based on the misconception that Beijing will 'allow' Taiwan to sign trade agreements with other countries in the first place - like talking about how you will spend the lottery win when you're not even going to buy a ticket.)

If we can take our first step now, however, it will help a lot. People may ask me: What is the haste? We have lagged behind our Asian peers for 10 years and we have to catch up, or our situation will worsen. (Ma again threatens a doom-ladened scenario by drawing on Taiwanese tendency to compare themselves to others and desire to 'be as good as the others' quite out of proportion to what is actually NECESSARY for the economy or environment.) Others might say that ‘ASEAN-plus-one’ will not pose a threat to Taiwan anytime soon. But, we have to be well prepared for their expansion to ASEAN-plus-two, or ASEAN-plus-three. As a political leader, I have to look at what Taiwan will face in next 10 or 20 years. (Annexation?)

Signing an ECFA will also help Taiwan hit three major goals — being the world’s innovation center, the economic and trade hub of Asia and the headquarters of Taiwanese businesses. (Governments in Taiwan have talked about making Taiwan a trade hub for Asia for the last 16 years and it is indicative of the effect of opening up that begun under President Lee that one of the major goals is to encourage 'Taiwanese' businesses to make Taiwan their HQ - not a question for most companies in most countries who don't have the luxury of moving HQ to a an offshore tax haven island country.) The trade pact with mainland China will strengthen Taiwan’s role in becoming the economic and trade hub in Asia as more countries will be interested in investing in Taiwan in light of its closer trade ties with the world’s No. 2 economy, mainland China [sic]. (And finally, another suppositional claim to end with and one to hold up to Ma when his best laid plans come crashing around his ears.)
This post is already ridiculously long so I'll stop there.

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