No Beau For Deleware, By The Numbers

I actually did a little 2010 work today and looked at the Delaware Senate race with no Beau Biden and must say, to my disappointment, it doesn't look good for the Democrats. Let's get a general overview before we delve into what little relevant numbers (minus Beau Biden) there are.

The GOP has basically chosen the lone Representative from the state, Mike Castle, to replace sitting VP Joe Biden as 1 of the 2 Senators from Delaware. Mr. Castle is a former Lt. Governor, Governor, and since 1993 lone Representative (and therefore elected statewide since 1993) of the state of Delaware. It should also be noted that Mr. Castle has repeatedly polled either just above or below Attorney General Biden before Biden's announcement that he would not run.

The Democrats have been left somewhat sprawling for a candidate after the loss of Beau and the neglect of current place holder Ted Kaufman. The latest emerging candidate is New Castle County Executive Chris Coons. Another name that has been throw around is former Lt. Gov. Jack Carney, but he is expected to run for Castle's open seat.

Now, here are some numbers:

• Democrats consistently have won Delaware with frequency in recent presidential elections. Obama carried the state by 25 points, but Kerry only by 7.
  
• Joe Biden consistently carried the state by at least double-digits and won his last election by 30-points.
• Likewise, Castle has consistently carried the state by double-digits and won his last reelection by about 22-points
• The most recent polling I have seen has Castle defeating Coons by a total of 56%-27%.
• The same Rasmussen poll has Castle's Fav/Unfav at 66%/25%, and Coons at 47%-37%.

Now, what do these numbers mean? First of all, they mean that, absent an emerging candidate, this is beginning to look like a more and more favorable seat for the GOP to pick up. Second, Coons overall polling numbers don't worry me so much, as there are still a number of votes still on the table, but for a relatively unknown candidate he already has his negatives above 35%. In other words, his campaign hasn't begun yet and a little damage will put it on life support. On the flip-side, Castle's negatives are at 25% and is obviously trusted by voters that sent Biden and Obama to Washington without much of a challenge. Conclusion, in a state that has been so blue nationally lately (a fact I think some put too much emphasis on) people are rightly beginning to see this as a likely GOP pickup or at least leaning that direction in the fall. Absent an emerging candidate that can catalyze the base in voter heavy New Castle county and raise a lot of money in the next 4-5 months this is probably another GOP victory.

H/T - Poliblog