Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Wu: No ECFA without 60% support - new UDN poll finds 61% support

Actually I made up the UDN poll result. In the real world, Taiwan Today is reporting that gangster-friendly Premier Wu Den-yih yesterday claimed that
"conditions will be ripe for signing the proposed cross-strait economic cooperation framework agreement only when public support exceeds 60 percent".  
In addition, Wu stated that ...
“we would also like to see public opposition fall to 20 percent before proceeding to sign the ECFA,” Wu said. “This would be the optimal situation.”
Mainland Affairs Council Lai Shin-yuan said her council recently found support for ECFA to be at about 55%.

Note that Wu did not promise that the ECFA would ONLY be signed once 60% supported it but rather that that would be 'optimal conditions'.  After all, he can't constrain the President's key policy and possibly lay conditions for its failure so he restricted himself to talking about the general condition of public opinion rather than make the 60% a mandatory target.

However, this appears to be an exercise in creating the image that the Government and President actually cares about public opinion, something they have only demonstrated when their authority and legitimacy were on the line after Typhoon Morakot.

In reality, I predict what will happen is that a series of polls by a combination of MAC, SEF, UDN, Apple Daily, China Times and TVBS will all show support for ECFA rising above 60% conveniently at a time when the President most wishes to sign the ECFA agreement.  This is a policy (not in their election manifesto) the KMT are determined to carry out so the polls will serve as a justification, they will certainly not be allowed to affect the course of events.  If polls consistently don't show 60% support, they won't be mentioned and Wu's statements yesterday will be exposed for what they are - a shallow attempt at demonstrating government democratic reflexivity to public opinion.

Bottom line: no poll or march or protest will be allowed to stop the juggernaut of KMT-CCP integration from moving forward and with the international community buying hook line and sinker the 'peace in our time' mantra of Ma and his cohort it really will be up to the Taiwanese, to paraphrase the words of Mario Savio, to put their bodies upon the gears and upon the wheels, upon the levers, upon all the apparatus, and to make it stop. Taiwanese have got to indicate to the people who run it, to the people who own it, that unless they're free, the machine will be prevented from working at all.

Read this: Mike Turton covers the Heritage Foundation's take on ECFA and the lack of guarantee that is the hallmark of all agreements between CCP and KMT - Ma offers a lot and China stays silent on reciprocation (lest that pesky DPP regain power and take advantage).  Taiwanese are being asked to have faith in China rather than demand concrete returns for compromises and concessions.