Sonia Sotomayor's nomination to succeed outgoing Supreme Court Justice David Souter has largely been embraced by the center, agreed to by the left, and (with the exception of the far right) treated haphazardly by the right. In point of fact, she was not my choice, because I think the court needs a much further shift to the left after the two Bush appointments, but here are some of the potential winners and losers of her placement on the Court.
Winners:
Moderate Republicans:Losers:
Moderate to right-of-center Republicans shouldn't except Sotomayor as an ideal jurist, but should probably acquiesce to her nomination as the best they can get from an Obama Adminstration. Despite what some may say, Sotomayor is widely regarded as a left-of-center jurist, but certainly no ideological bomb thrower. Most sensible Republicans should realize that there has to be some questions to give the appearance that the GOP is not laying down, but eventually accept Obama's selection as an inevitable, politically shrewd reality.
Moderate Democrats:
Most moderate Democrats should be happy with Mrs. Sotomayor on two fronts: one she is not a rabid leftist (which I think Obama has the political capital to appoint) and (2) she is a definite political winner. Mrs. Sotomayor has maintained centrist positions on abortion funding restriction as well as has been given approval by a study in Business Week. She will be the first Hispanic on the Court and will help throw a bone to an increasingly blue constituency. This voting trend by the fastest growing minority in the U.S. will help moderate Democrats compete ever further in the South and Midwest.
The Far Right:Personally, I wanted to see someone that was much to the left of Sotomayor placed by Obama. I believe that he will get another chance, as Ginsburg will probably retire while he is in office, but who knows what the Senate will look like then or how much political capital he will have. While a moderate on most issues (and upset by Sotomayor joining the majority in Maloney v. Cuomo regarding local gun rights) I want a leftist court because I feel they are more likely to side with my views regarding the Bill of Rights. In any case, this move is the first hard-line political move by Obama that will help position the Democrats for victory in 2010 & 2012.
I almost hate to call the far right losers for two reasons, (1) I believe the far right was looking for this fight, and (2) like the "Moderate Republicans" mentioned above the choice could have been far worse by their standards. The main reason the far right is assured a place in the "losers" column is that they will almost certainly lose the fight against her confirmation and they are apt to take the fight to a level that will damage the GOP politically. The only Latino Republican in the Senate, Mel Martinez, realizes this, I just don't think Ann Coulter or Rush Limbaugh does. Barack Obama increased the Democrats edge with Latino voters in 2008 by 25% over 2004 (67-31) and the likes of Rush won't push that number back any. This is why Obama won Florida, and we will gladly take it again.
The Far Left:
I almost created a "push" column for the "far left", but decided to put them in the losers column. After some suffering due to a Roberts' Court the far left will largely lay down its arms and support Sotomayor, but they may turn out to be bigger losers than they expect. Sotomayor has not taken a hard line position on abortion and is not likely to do so. Further, she will probably not turn out to be an ideological counterweight to Antonin Scalia when Ginsburg retires. Politically this group does well as, like the far right does the GOP, they mostly associate themselves with the Democrats and this move will bode well for them politically.
