Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Do Commidity Price Shocks Affect Inflation?

It is almost conventional wisdom that commodity (particularly oil now) "price shocks" or spikes have an affect on inflation.  The Chicago Fed has a new paper (.pdf) that says quite the contrary.  For a quick perspective, here is a handy-dandy chart from the IMF that tracks the correlation between the two:




https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/_VgJQTp0Bsf0/TaR2iwMcjcI/AAAAAAAAAbg/SjuMGMZXYfE/commodity_core.jpg
H/T - Paul Krugman