Will The GOP Nominate Someone Who Can Win?

This is my recent column on the subject:

“I believe that abortion should be safe and legal in this country.”

“I want universal coverage. I want everyone … in this country to have insurance … and also make sure people can’t be denied on the basis of pre-existing illness.”

“I was an independent during the time of Reagan/Bush. I’m not trying to return to Reagan/Bush.”

Who are these quotes from you might ask? President Obama? Some San Francisco liberal? No, they happen to be previous quotes from the current leader for the GOP nomination for president, Mitt Romney.

Of course, he has explanations for all of these previous policy positions now, but will that be enough to gain an exemption from an increasingly critical Republican base? My money is in the negative, but the more interesting question to me is if the GOP primary electorate is willing to shoot itself in the foot for an ideologically “pure” candidate or if it is willing to be pragmatic about the 2012 selection process and nominate a candidate who can win?

According to several recent polls, Mitt Romney is basically neck-and-neck with President Obama and, more importantly, is leading him in several “swing” states like Florida. Also on the former Massachusetts governor’s side is that every GOP nominee post-1964 has been someone who has already run for president before and didn’t win or in other words someone who “waited his turn” (ala Bob Dole, Ronald Reagan, etc…).

Despite the history and the polls, one cannot ignore the effect the “Tea Party” is having on the GOP primary process as it stands now. There is ample evidence of this from last year’s midterm election as well as their active support of certain less mainstream candidates this time.

In 2010 the Tea Party rallied behind Sharron Angle in Nevada and Christine O’Donnell in Delaware, among others, and nominated candidates that created controversy where none need be. There were victories as well, but in these two races in particular, a noncontroversial nominee would have definitely served the party’s interest better in the long-term.

Even victories in state’s such as Florida help to illustrate the trend toward more ideologically inclined candidates. In this year’s (impending) primary process, I would point to long-time Tea Party darling Sarah Palin, the recent rise of Donald Trump, and the fact that Michelle Bachman out-raised Mitt Romney in the first quarter of this year as examples of a changing GOP electorate.

GOP candidates stand to upset the proverbial apple cart even if someone as electable as Mitt Romney can get the nomination. If Gov. Romney does manage to win amongst Tea party favorites, will candidates such as Trump or Bachman push the conversation so far outside of what independent voters see as the mainstream as to be a fatal blow to Gov. Romney’s general election ambitions?

This is the real danger for the Republican Party in 2012. Despite bowing to the Tea Party in public in may ways, many GOP insiders will be happy to tell you that the likes of Donald Trump scare the hell out of them. Granted, these people rarely have the same ideological goals as the people whose votes they need the most, but it is a very real fear.  Make no mistake about it, whoever wins the Presidency in 2012 will need a candidate acceptable to the roughly 18 percent of the electorate known as independents who decide national elections.

And what about the Democrats? They can read the same polling data I can, but don’t seem to be as concerned as they should be about the GOP in 2012. There could be many reasons for this, bravado being the most malefic, but more than likely, they are hopeful of the type of GOP Primary described here.  That is a nominating process bereft of real policy proposals and bogged down in rhetoric about birth certificates, doing away with Medicare, and the like. The White House could also be optimistic about their chances because of the anticipated fundraising prowess, especially with the mystic of the Presidency to bolster those efforts, and their goal of spending $1 billion from now until election day.

I would say the most auspicious thing the Democratic Party can hope for is that the GOP’s worst enemy is not the opposition party, but themselves. In essence, that the GOP presidential primary is their “Trump” card to reelection.